Every major research institution studying AI and employment in one place. What WEF, McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, OECD, and Challenger actually found, and what it means for your career.
Calculate My Personal RiskHeadline numbers
92M
jobs displaced by 2030
WEF 2025
170M
new jobs created by 2030
WEF 2025
300M
jobs globally exposed to AI
Goldman Sachs 2023
55K
explicit AI job cuts in 2024
Challenger 2025
Research breakdown by source
World Economic Forum
Future of Jobs Report 2025 (2025)
92M
jobs displaced by 2030
170M
new roles created by 2030
+78M
net job gain projected
41%
employers plan AI-driven headcount reductions
The WEF's most comprehensive analysis of AI's impact on the labour market. The headline finding is a net positive outcome globally, but the distribution is uneven. Low-skilled, routine roles face the most displacement. The fastest-growing roles are in AI and data, green technologies, and healthcare.
Goldman Sachs
The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth (2023)
300M
jobs globally could be affected by generative AI
2.5%
of US employment at direct displacement risk
44%
of legal tasks are highly automatable
46%
of administrative tasks are highly automatable
Goldman's analysis is more conservative than some estimates on direct displacement, projecting that 2.5% of US employment is truly at risk of elimination. But they note that a broader 6-7% face significant transformation. The economic upside is estimated at $7 trillion in global GDP growth over 10 years.
McKinsey Global Institute
A New Future of Work: The Race to Deploy AI and Raise Skills (2023-2024)
12M
US workers may need to change occupations by 2030
$13T
additional global economic activity from AI by 2030
1.2%
additional GDP growth per year from AI adoption
60-70%
of work activities could be automated with current technology
McKinsey's analysis focuses on work activities rather than jobs. They find 60-70% of activities across occupations are technically automatable. The practical adoption timeline extends this, but the direction is clear. Their 2030 projection of 12 million occupational transitions in the US alone is widely cited.
Challenger, Gray and Christmas
Annual Job Cuts Report (2024-2025)
55K
job cuts directly attributed to AI in 2024
1.17M
total US layoffs tracked in 2024 (highest since 2020)
4.7%
of 2024 layoffs explicitly attributed to AI
Challenger tracks actual announced layoffs with stated reasons. The 55,000 figure is almost certainly an undercount since many companies restructuring due to AI do not publicly state AI as the reason. The true figure is likely several times higher.
OECD
OECD Employment Outlook: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market (2023)
27%
of jobs in OECD countries are in highly automatable occupations
18%
of jobs could have 70%+ of tasks automated
The OECD's methodology focuses on occupation-level task analysis in 38 member countries. Their finding that 27% of OECD jobs are in highly automatable occupations aligns broadly with other research. They also note significant variation by country, with lower-income OECD members facing higher exposure.
By sector
Figures represent estimated task automatability within each sector based on O*NET data, academic research, and reported AI tool deployments. Not the same as job loss probability, which depends on adoption pace and new role creation.
When AI automates 50% of an accountant's tasks, that accountant is not necessarily replaced. They may become twice as productive, or shift their time to higher-value work. Job elimination requires automation of enough tasks that the entire role becomes economically unnecessary.
A McKinsey number about automation potential says nothing about when it will happen. Large tech companies deploy AI at speed. Small businesses in traditional sectors move slowly. The same percentage of automation risk could mean 2 years in finance or 10 years in a family-run trade business.
The WEF's net positive projection of 78 million new jobs is not fiction. Every wave of automation has historically created more jobs than it destroyed, though the distribution is never even. The workers who adapt and skill up are the ones who access the new roles.
A 60% automation risk for 'marketing' tells you nothing about whether your specific combination of skills, relationships, and employer situation puts you at risk. The Fossil Score assessment analyses your personal situation rather than your job category.
The WEF Future of Jobs 2025 report projects 92 million job displacements alongside 170 million new roles created, for a net gain of 78 million jobs. Goldman Sachs estimates 300 million jobs globally are exposed to AI impact in some form, with approximately 2.5% of US employment at direct displacement risk.
Challenger, Gray and Christmas tracked 55,000 job cuts explicitly attributed to AI in 2024. This is almost certainly an undercount. Many companies cite 'efficiency initiatives' or 'digital transformation' without explicitly referencing AI as the cause of restructuring.
Yes. The pace of AI adoption by enterprises has increased significantly from 2023 to 2026. Tools that were experimental in 2023 are now in production across financial services, legal, marketing, and technology. The rate of change is higher in 2026 than in any previous year.
Countries with high concentrations of knowledge workers in automatable roles face the most immediate impact. The US, UK, and advanced European economies have high exposure in legal, financial, and media roles. The OECD notes that lower-income member countries sometimes face higher occupation-level automation risk due to different industry compositions.
Personal Assessment
Find out exactly where your role sits relative to these numbers. 4 minutes. Free.
Get My Fossil Score